CPTnet
24 August 2006

IRAQ REFLECTION: What about civil war?

by Peggy Gish

In early July when I returned to Iraq, polls said the majority of U.S.
citizens wanted a plan to disengage our troops from Iraq. Their stumbling
block seemed to be the fear that, without the presence of the U.S. forces in
Iraq, civil war would erupt.

Iraqis also struggle with this dilemma. Few Iraqis want ongoing U.S.
military presence in their society. In the Kurdish north, where most are
grateful to the U.S. for toppling the Saddam Hussein regime and believe the
U. S. presence is needed how now to maintain order, there are those who
quietly tell us, "The U.S. must leave."

Two days ago, two top American generals told a U.S. senate committee that
Iraq is in danger of sliding into civil war if sectarian violence is not
contained. Many Iraqis believe it has already begun.

Over the past year, Iraqis in Baghdad told me that U.S. presence actually
increased the tension between ethnic groups, making civil war more likely.
Some said the sooner U.S. forces leave, the more likely the conflicting
ethnic groups would come together to reduce the violence and negotiate a
cooperative government.

A Kurdish professional in the north reminded me of the role that Saddam's
government played in fostering the existing ethnic tensions. "Saddam did
things to deliberately set Iraqi groups against each other and create
hatred," she said. "This has made it harder for the groups to trust each
other and unify now. But now all the factions are destroying Iraq. I believe
the U.S. wants to create instability and US policies make the problems
worse."

Some Iraqis in central and southern Iraq told me that all the parties
involved in the strife do not really want peace. They want the conflict to
continue to accomplish their own gains. According to this view, Shia leaders
want the unrest so they can push the country to accept a federal system.
Sunni leaders want unrest to keep the Shia government from successfully
establishing itself and Americans want the unrest to justify staying.

However we label the current situation, we need to consider some important
questions. How do we address the underlying problems behind the strife? How
can how can all parties have a legitimate role in creating a government that
represent the needs of the common people and not just the power needs of the
elite? Why do we assume that continuing U.S. military presence in Iraq and
bringing more U.S. forces into Baghdad will help, when after three and a
half years, this military has not dealt with the important problems, has not
met the basic human needs of Iraqis, has not prevented civil war in Iraq,
but has made things worse?

I believe it's time for new thinking; someone needs to put new choices on
the drawing board.