[Note: This release has been adapted
for CPTnet. The original, more
comprehensive piece is available on Gishâ€™s blog.]
|CPT has been monitoring the checkpoint into the KRG |
where tens of thousands of Iraqi Christians, Yazidi,
Turkmen, Shabak and Shia have been fleeing ISIS advances.
Many analysts of the current situation in Iraq had
predicted that the Islamic State of Iraq and SHAM (ISIS), renamed the â€śIslamic
Stateâ€ť (IS) a month ago by the group (and also called â€śDAASHâ€ť by the Kurds in
the KRG) would make a major offensive on Baghdad before the end of Ramadan.
Jessica Lewis, a former American military
intelligence officer with several years of service in Iraq, describes IS as
capable of both guerilla style warfare and conventional warfare, and predicts
it will attack soon, first the bases around the city and important government
The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based
think tank, which has been analyzing IS activity in Iraq, reports that the
coordinated suicide attacks conducted around Baghdad in predominantly Shia
areas on 19 July, demonstrate that ISIS has infiltrated highly coordinated
sleeper cells into the city. Their analysts predict that the coming attack will
likely be in the form of guerrilla and terrorist offensive, rather than a huge
conventional military assault. It would be intent on instilling chaos and fear
and keeping the Iraqi government focused on defending the capital rather than
mounting an offensive to retake Mosul and other captured territory.